5 Big Predictions for Philly Politics in 2024

Philly politics-as-usual is about to be reset. With a new mayor (Cherelle Parker, above), and lots of new players in City Council, there will be a new set of dynamics at play. / Photograph via Philadelphia Mayor’s Office

The election victories of 2023 — divisive as they were — proved at least one thing: 2024 will be a historic year for Philly politics. Our 100th mayor is a woman, our new City Council president hails from South Philly, an openly LGBTQIA politician is finally serving us in City Council, and the Working Families Party now outranks the Republican Party in City Hall.

Yet despite all that change, the behind-the-scenes mechanisms haven’t changed all that much. The moderate, labor-heavy base that helped secure Cherelle Parker the city’s top job shouldn’t have surprised political experts — who in Philly politics wouldn’t covet the backing of the Democratic establishment and Building Trades leader Ryan Boyer? The continued flagging popularity of the Republican Party in Philly led to a near municipal shutout; only Councilmember Brian O’Neill and Commissioner Seth Bluestein are left standing to rep the GOP in City Hall. Progressives had their ups: Councilmember-at-large Isaiah Thomas was the highest vote-getter in the primary and general elections; Nicolas O’Rourke finally won an at-large seat to help the Working Families Party outnumber the GOP in Council. And their downs: Helen Gym lost her high-profile mayoral bid, and there were several Council losses.

With a new mayoral administration, new City Council leadership, a new police commissioner, and more, what was once certain in our political scene won’t be anymore. New dynamics will inform everything that happens in the coming year. Here’s what we predict about the new rules of the road in Philly politics in 2024.

City Council and the Parker administration are going to bump heads.

Considering that the new mayor campaigned on an establishment platform (see her hyper-moderate stances on policing, safe injection sites and stop-and-frisk), it’ll be interesting to observe the dynamics between Mayor Cherelle Parker’s administration and a new City Council that includes two Working Families Party members and their endorsed allies (Democrats Isaiah Thomas, Jamie Gauthier and Rue Landau). And newly minted Council President Kenyatta Johnson didn’t endorse Parker for mayor; nor did Parker endorse Johnson in his bid for the Council presidency. (Neither made endorsements, though they’ve been making a point of putting on a united front in public of late). Has the groundwork been laid for another contentious Nutter-vs.-Council saga, or will common ground be found? We’ll see.

Big labor, developers and politicians are going to fight over the 76ers arena proposal.

Right now, the controversial campaign for the proposed 76ers arena isn’t looking good. In December, the developers had a much-scrutinized hours-long hearing with the Civic Design Review committee, which reportedly had more concerns than praise for the plan. The development sector and the Building Trades unions are all in favor of it, and Parker has signaled that she may back it as well — but the decision isn’t up to them. It will ultimately be made by a City Council representing various competing interests and brimming with lots of new dynamics. With the impact study commissioned by the former mayoral administration still pending, it’s only a matter of time before the interests of big labor and development collide in City Hall once again.

Governor Shapiro’s political appeal is going to be put to the test.

After an impressive rapid response to repair I-95 last year, Shapiro looked like he could do no wrong in the eyes of Democrats and Pennsylvanians in general. But is there trouble in political paradise? Several members of his own party, including state Democratic Party leader Sharif Street, are publicly criticizing Shapiro’s decision to sign a bill that some argue undemocratically reduces the power of our city’s district attorney. Harrisburg is watching his every move statewide, especially his stance on private-school vouchers. And his national profile is growing. Many observers speculate that he’s aiming for the White House in the years to come. Which means 2024 could be a big test for Shapiro’s heretofore deft political maneuvering.

History will be made once again for underrepresented candidates running for office.

Citywide races were historic last year. This could be the year Philly candidates running in state races have their moment. Could Malcolm Kenyatta win the race for auditor general and become the first openly gay candidate to hold statewide office? The North Philly native has already made history as the first Black gay candidate elected a State Representative. Will State House candidate Andre Carroll of Germantown make history as the second Black gay politician to win a seat? How about Philly’s former chief public defender, Keir Bradford Grey, who’s running to become Pennsylvania’s first Black and second woman attorney general? With the state Democratic primary taking place on April 23rd, the anticipation is building to see who advances.

Pennsylvania will likely remain blue in November. And it could actually get bluer.

Since the GOP dominated the state during the 2016 presidential election, Democrats have clawed back power. Dems now hold the governor’s mansion, both U.S. Senate seats, a strong majority in the state Supreme Court, and a razor-thin majority in the State House. They’ve essentially  flipped a once-red state blue. But will it last? Current voting trends suggest that there’s hope for the Democratic momentum to continue this year as President Joe Biden seeks reelection. But will Democrats hold onto the State Attorney General’s office? Will U.S. Senator Bob Casey be reelected? And can the party make any gains by, say, landing Democrats in Pennsylvania’s treasurer and auditor general seats? Could it secure a stronger majority in the State House? So much can change in Philly politics between now and November 5th. Get ready for a wild ride.