Poll: 1 Percent of African-Americans in Pennsylvania Are Voting for Trump

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In the four-way presidential race, Hillary Clinton has a 90 percent to 1 percent edge among African-American voters in Pennsylvania, which is helping to push her to a 46 to 39 lead over Donald Trump, according to a new poll from the Siena College Research Institute and the New York Times’s Upshot blog. (And in the context of this poll, that 1 percent is derived from literally one African-American respondent who said he or she supports Trump.)

“Both major candidates have net negative favorability ratings,” Siena College poll director Don Levy said in a release. “Clinton is viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by a majority, 53 percent. Trump’s favorable rating is 38 percent and his unfavorable number is 59 percent. And most voters told us that they will be very upset if they wake up on November 9th and the candidate that they oppose is President. Of those not supporting Clinton, 61 percent would be very upset if she wins while among those not supporting Trump, 65 percent would be very upset should he win.”

Trump leads 45 to 40 among white people in the state. But Clinton has that huge 90 to 1 lead among African-American voters, and a 61 to 13 percent edge among Latinx voters. Clinton’s edge in the poll in the City of Philadelphia is 77 to 9; in the city suburbs, she’s up 48 to 36 percent. If those numbers hold, it’s going to be incredibly tough for Trump to win the state. If turnout is good in Philly, it may be impossible for Trump to win.

Trump’s lack of African-American support has been an issue throughout the campaign. People have noticed that more than a few “BLACKS FOR TRUMP” signs have been held by white people. One enthusiastic African-American supporter of Trump in Florida is a former cultist.

The poll shows a much closer race for Pennsylvania Senate. The incumbent, Republican Pat Toomey, trails challenger Katie McGinty 47 to 44. She leads 72 to 18 in Philadelphia, but Toomey leads 48 to 45 in the suburbs.

The survey reached 824 likely voters in Pennsylvania on land lines and on cell phones from October 23rd to the 25th, targeting a “stratified weighted sample of voters” from the L2 voter list.