NFL Picks Against The Spread 2016: Week 11 Games

Donnie Jones and Chris Maragos. (USA Today Sports)

Before Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season schedule kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week’s round of games. (Click here for our NFL Week 11 straight up predictions.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more at Bovada. My record so far this season is 67-58-9 after going 8-5 last week. Let’s get to the picks.

2016 NFL WEEK 11 PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5): The Vikings have lost four in a row after starting out the season 5-0. It’s hard to feel great about Minnesota but it doesn’t seem like having them cover 1.5 points at home is a big ask. And it’s not like the Cardinals haven’t looked great lately. PICK: Vikings -1.5

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5): The Bears are bad. Their 2-7 record reflects that. The Giants are not that great, but somehow they’re 6-3. It doesn’t really make sense.

Giants have negative pt diff, they're 30th in NFL w/ -8 turnover diff, 24th yardage diff, & 31st in T.O.P. How in the hell is this team 6-3?

— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) November 15, 2016

I’d recommend avoiding this game, but since I have to make a pick, I’ll take the points. Chicago won’t win, but I just don’t think New York is so good that they’ll cover. PICK: Bears +7.5

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3): The Titans are an ascending team. They have an opportunity to build off a blowout victory over the Packers with a division win this week. Indianapolis beat the Titans when Tennessee was at home a few weeks ago, but the feeling here is the Titans will split the season series. Marcus Mariota will out-perform Andrew Luck in this one. PICK: Titans +3

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Cleveland Browns: The Browns have a real chance to go 0-16. They’re not going to win this week against the Steelers. Can Pittsburgh cover the spread? Yes. Ben Roethlisberger is further removed from injury and the Steelers will be eager to get a win to stay alive in the AFC North race. PICK: Steelers -9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7): Andy Reid’s teams always get hot after the bye. The Chiefs are 5-0 since losing the Steelers in early October. Tampa Bay has been surprisingly decent on the road this year; they’re 3-1 in away games. But Arrowhead Stadium, one of the loudest in the NFL, will be a tough challenge for the Bucs. The Chiefs will continue their winning streak with a comfortable victory at home. PICK: Chiefs -7

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3): The Bengals are playing on a short week after losing on Monday Night Football. The Bills, meanwhile, have the benefit of extra rest since they’re coming off their bye. Buffalo has looked more impressive at their best than the Bengals have this year. I trust in Rex Ryan more than Marvin Lewis in this situation. PICK: Bills +3

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7): The Cowboys are a one-point loss away from being 9-0. There’s no reason to bet against them until they prove otherwise. Baltimore’s defense might be able to slow down the Dallas offense a little bit but the Ravens’ offense isn’t reliable enough to take the points. Much to the dismay of Eagles fans, Dallas is the pick. PICK: Cowboys -7

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-7): Every week I wonder how Gus Bradley still has a job. He probably will still have a job after losing again this week. The Lions are coming off their bye and their offense will prove too much for the Jags to handle. Detroit has a chance to step up and win the NFC North. It’s crazy to think they’re in this position considering they could just as easily be 0-9 right now. Matthew Stafford’s strong season will continue this week as Detroit wins with relative ease. PICK: Lions -7

Miami Dolphins (-2) at Los Angeles Rams: Don’t look now but the Dolphins look a lot better than the team that got off to a 1-3 start. I’ll take Miami over the quarterback who wasn’t good enough to start over Case Keenum until now. I’m referring to No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, of course, who will make his NFL debut this weekend. I’ll believe in Goff when I see him prove it. PICK: Dolphins -2

New England Patriots (-13) at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers played the Cardinals tough last week. It was one of their better games of the season. Still, the 49ers are pretty bad. And you can bet Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be motivated this week after losing to the Seahawks at home. Belichick will also be looking to get revenge on Chip Kelly, who beat him last season. PICK: Patriots -13

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-7): The Seahawks have only two games by more than one possession. Those victories include a 19-point win over the lowly 49ers and a 10-point win over the lowly Jets. The Eagles’ biggest margin of defeat, meanwhile, is seven points. This game figures to be a battle of the defenses so it could be a close affair. Seattle is too good at home to be on the Eagles outright; the Seahawks are 35-5 in their last 40 home games. Still, Philly might be able to cover the spread in this one. I’ll take the points. PICK: Eagles +7

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-2.5): Washington not even getting the full standard three points at home is kind of crazy. Green Bay just isn’t any good. The Packers are 8-11 in their last 19 games. Mike McCarthy’s team got their butts kicked by the Titans last week. Washington is solid enough to get the win and cover here despite losing to the Packers in the playoffs last year. PICK: Redskins -2.5

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-6.5): The Giants aren’t the only team that is somehow 6-3 despite not being very good. Houston is arguably the worst team in the NFL with a winning record. They own the league’s seventh worst point differential. The Raiders should take care of business at home, especially since they’re coming off their bye. PICK: Raiders -6.5