Three And Out: Eagles-Titans Predictions

Player I’ll be watching

Kapadia: Jason Kelce

The Eagles’ starting center returned from injury against the Texans, and it looked like the offense was on track to regain its identity as a run-first unit that used tempo to wear down opponents. LeSean McCoy ran for 117 yards in that game and averaged 4.9 YPC.

But in the two games since, the run game has slowed down once again. Kelce has been hard on himself and said flat-out that he needs to play better. He’s dealing with a thumb injury that is affecting his snaps, and it’s become an adventure when Mark Sanchez sets up in shotgun.

Kelce is a key cog in the Eagles’ run game – both on inside runs and plays designed to get to the perimeter. He could be playing next to a different right guard Sunday in Andrew Gardner.

The Eagles are a better team than the Titans, but with the way the offense has turned the ball over, no game is a lock for the Birds. Kelce needs to be more consistent with his snaps, and the guys up front need to handle their business against a defense that ranks 32nd against the run, according to Football Outsiders.

McManus: LeSean McCoy

The Titans’ run defense (ranked 31st in the NFL) is allowing over 143 yards on the ground per game. In Monday night’s matchup between Tennessee and Pittsburgh, Le’Veon Bell went off for 204 yards on 33 carries (6.2 avg.), helping the Steelers to a 27-24 win. We know that defenses tend to play the Eagles a little differently, but there should be some opportunities in the ground game this week.

I certainly agree that the offensive line is a big reason why the run game hasn’t been as productive as anticipated,  and understand why McCoy is growing tired of questions about whether or not he’s the same player as he was a year ago. I also think McCoy is widely considered one of the elite backs in this league, and that part of what separates the top-tier playmakers from the pack is the ability to create even when the conditions are not ideal. There are elements working against him but as one of the best players in the game, he needs to find a way to rise above.

Over/under: 21 points scored by the Titans — Whaddya got?

Kapadia: I’ll take the under. The Eagles gave up 53 points last week. While three touchdowns came from Green Bay’s defense and special teams, there’s no doubt Aaron Rodgers could have piled it on had he needed to.

Still, I think the Eagles’ defense will respond. Everything went wrong last week – bad game plan plus bad execution plus hot quarterback led to a blowout defeat. But on the whole, this unit has overachieved.

Going up against a rookie quarterback who has limited mobility, I expect the pass-rush to get back on track. If the offense turns it over or if the Eagles have breakdowns on special teams, things could get ugly. But I think they keep Tennessee under 21.

McManus: I’ll go just under as well. The Eagles’ defense is allowing just 20 points per game at home on the season and has registered 24 sacks (4.8 average) at Lincoln Financial Field through five games. I think Billy Davis‘ group will continue to protect its back yard.

As the Packers game highlighted, the Eagles have flaws on defense and in the secondary in particular. But not every team is equipped to expose those flaws to the degree Green Bay did. Facing Zach Mettenberger, Kendall Wright and Nate Washington is obviously a little different than going up against the Rodgers-Jordy Nelson-Randall Cobb trio.

This unit has played well overall and I think it gets back on track against a Tennessee team lacking strong firepower.

Predictions

Kapadia: Eagles 30, Titans 17

I don’t know that this is going to be a comfortable game where the Eagles come out and take control right away. But the Titans have a short week to prepare for an offense that does things differently than most of their opponents.

The only letdown game I can recall for the Eagles in the past two years has been the loss to the Vikings in 2013. And even then, that might have been more the result of a bad defense than a team looking past its opponent.

At some point in this game, McCoy should be able to break out. The Titans’ run defense is not good, and Gardner might end up being a slight upgrade over Matt Tobin at right guard. Defensively, Tennessee does not have a dangerous ground game, and I think the Eagles will be able to pressure Mettenberger.

This one might be close at the start of the fourth quarter, but eventually the Eagles will tally a double-digit victory.

McManus: Eagles 28, Titans 20

Is this a possible trap game? Well, it’s hard not to notice that a Thanksgiving matchup with Dallas lies just beyond this one, kicking off a three-game portion of the schedule (Cowboys-Seahawks-Cowboys) that could define the season. Given that they’re coming off 33-point loss, though, it would be a surprise if they were of the mindset to overlook anybody.

Mark Sanchez is the other X-factor for me. If he plays like he did against Carolina a couple weeks back, the Eagles should cruise. If the turnovers pop up, this one has a chance to be too close for comfort. I’ll say he commits one turnover on the way to a somewhat uneventful Eagles win.