The Matchup: Eagles Vs. Vikings
THE BIG PICTURE
The Eagles have won five in a row and are in sole possession of first place in the NFC East. We went over playoff scenarios here and here earlier in the week. Kelly’s squad is in excellent position to grab the No. 3 seed if it takes care of business down the stretch.
The Vikings are 3-9-1. Last week, Minnesota lost a wild one to the Ravens, 29-26. Professional football players generally have a lot of pride and give full effort when they’re on the field, so I don’t like to use the “nothing to play for” label. But obviously, there are no postseason aspirations for Minnesota.
Here is how the Eagles’ offense matches up with the Vikings’ defense:
| Yards Per Play | Points Per Game | DVOA (FB Outsiders) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles Offense | 6.2 (2nd) | 25.7 (9th) | 19.9% (3rd) |
| Vikings Defense | 5.6 (22nd) | 30.4 (31st) | 8.7% (27th) |
And the Eagles’ defense against the Vikings’ offense:
| Yards Per Play | Points Per Game | DVOA (FB Outsiders) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings Offense | 5.4 (15th) | 24.2 (14th) | -8.2% (22nd) |
| Eagles Defense | 5.5 (18th) | 23.2 (13th) | 5.6% (22nd) |
Note: Click here for an explanation of DVOA.
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EAGLES RUSHING OFFENSE
| YPC | FB Outsiders (DVOA) | |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles Rushing Offense | 4.9 (1st) | 22.1% (1st) |
| Vikings Rushing Defense | 4.2 (17th) | -3.0% (20th) |
LeSean McCoy had an all-time performance in the snow against Detroit, carrying 29 times for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With 1,305 yards, he is the NFL’s leading rusher and is averaging 5.0 YPC.
The Eagles have been making adjustments to the run game since the bye and are relying less on Foles to be a threat with his legs. The offensive line has started all 13 games together, and the tight ends are making major contributions in the run game.
The Vikings run a 4-3 scheme up front. The ends are veterans Brian Robison and Jared Allen. Everson Griffen rotates in as well. The defensive tackles are six-time Pro Bowler Kevin Williams and Letroy Guion. Philadelphia native Sharrif Floyd
will get into the mix also.
At linebacker, Minnesota goes with Chad Greenway (SAM), Erin Henderson (MLB) and Marvin Mitchell (WILL). Greenway is sixth in the league with 116 tackles. And Henderson can make plays behind the line of scrimmage with nine tackles for loss.
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EAGLES PASSING OFFENSE
| Completion Percentage | YPA | 20+ | FB Outsiders (DVOA) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 61.9% (17th) | 9.04 (1st) | *64 (1st) | *26.5% (7th) |
| Vikings Passing Defense | 64.3% (25th) | 7.3 (19th) | 43 (16th) | 17.1% (24th) |
* Team stat, not individual stat.
Foles won’t have to worry about bad weather conditions playing indoors in the dome. He started off slow against Detroit (4-for-13), but finished strong (7-for-9) and was able to hit on some big plays downfield.
Overall, the Eagles lead the NFL with 64 pass plays of 20+ yards. DeSean Jackson is 10th in the league with 1,080 yards. Cooper played well last week and is third in the league in yards-per-catch (19.3).
The Vikings’ corners are Josh Robinson and Chris Cook. Robinson was a third-round pick in 2012 and has 16 starts under his belt. Cook is in his fourth season after the Vikings drafted him in 2010. The safeties are Jamarca Sanford and Andrew Sendejo.
Minnesota ranks 24th in pass defense, per Football Outsiders. Last week, they limited Joe Flacco to 4.9 yards-per-attempt and picked him off three times.
Up front, Allen and Robison have seven sacks apiece. Overall, though, the Vikings rank 28th in adjusted sack rate. Jason Peters has played well and will get matched up against Allen. Lane Johnson has improved on the other side and will get Robison.
The Eagles rank 30th in adjusted sack rate, but that number is not indicative of how the O-Line is playing.
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EAGLES RUSHING DEFENSE
| YPC | FB Outsiders (DVOA) | |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings Rushing Offense | 4.9 (1st) | -2.3% (15th) |
| Eagles Rushing Defense | 4.0 (11th) | -9.3% (12th) |
Several unknowns in this section. Adrian Peterson (foot) and Toby Gerhart (hamstring) both sat out Thursday’s practice. According to Ben Goessling of ESPN.com, it’s unlikely that Peterson plays, although the Eagles have still spent time preparing for him.
Gerhart has been productive when given opportunities, averaging 4.7 YPC throughout his career. Peterson is second to only McCoy with 1,221 yards.
Undrafted free agent Matt Asiata is in his second season with the Vikings and is listed as the third-string running back.
The Eagles’ run defense has been good for most of the season. The effort is led by the guys up front: Cedric Thornton, Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan. All three are playing at a high level.
DeMeco Ryans is ninth in the NFL with 110 tackles. Per team stats, Kendricks has 22 tackles in the last two games since returning from a knee injury.
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EAGLES PASSING DEFENSE
| Completion Percentage | YPA | 20+ | FB Outsiders (DVOA) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | **59.1% (27th) | **7.1 (16th) | *46 (12th) | *-8.7%% (25th) |
| Eagles Passing Defense | 60.0% (15th) | 7.1 (15th) | 49 (26th) | 16.3% (23rd) |
* Team stat, not individual stat.
** If he were eligible.
Matt Cassel will get the start for Minnesota. He’s completed 59.1 percent of his passes, averaged 7.1 yards per attempt and thrown seven TDs against four interceptions.
The Vikings’ leading receiver is Jerome Simpson. He’s got 670 yards, is averaging 15.6 yards per reception and has 12 grabs of 20+ yards. Greg Jennings has 48 catches for 570 yards and three touchdowns.
Rookie Cordarrelle Patterson has 35 catches for 395 yards and is one of the most dangerous returners in the league. He’s averaging 33.3 yards per kickoff return (tops in the league) and has returned two to the house. Special teams is the Vikings’ biggest advantage. The Eagles gave up two scores on returns against Detroit.
In the secondary, Williams injured his hamstring and was limited in practice Thursday. If he can’t go, it’ll likely be Roc Carmichael opposite Bradley Fletcher.
Wolff (knee) is a game-time decision. Patrick Chung has been inconsistent, but will likely start opposite Nate Allen.
The Vikings rank 13th in adjusted sack rate and have been decent in protection. Left tackle Matt Kalil made the Pro Bowl in 2012.
It was difficult for anyone to get to the passer in last week’s game, but Trent Cole has been coming on strong. Vinny Curry has been the team’s most efficient pass-rusher. Connor Barwin and Cox have played well also.
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THE ESSENTIALS
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. EST on FOX. Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston will have the call with Tony Siragusa on the sidelines. According to Sports Insights, the Eagles are 5-point favorites, and 83 percent of the money is on them to cover.
Follow Sheil Kapadia on Twitter and e-mail him at skapadia@phillymag.com.
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