Surprising Winners and Losers in the Pennsylvania Governor’s Race So Far

"Winner": Tom Corbett

The guv escaped the humiliation of losing an intra-Party challenge, a piece of luck due not to strength or incumbency but the fact that politicians are gutless. Truth is, a common-sense Republican (or well-funded businessman) with $3 million would have beaten Corbett in a primary. But par for the course, and oblivious to political suicide, GOP leaders exerted pressure on potential Corbett rivals not to challenge the governor.

However, Corbett lost big on his campaign commercial attacking leading Democrat Tom Wolf. It was a dumb move, as he should have stayed above the fray, allowing the Democrats to hammer their own. Airing the ad not only cemented Wolf’s legitimacy as frontrunner (ironically, the person Corbett least wants to oppose), but it also makes Corbett look desperate. Even worse, the ad was laughably bad. It all but accused Wolf, as Ed Rendell’s Secretary of Revenue, of single-handedly raising taxes that “led to 152,000 Pennsylvania voters losing their jobs and unemployment going up almost 50 percent.” Since when does a Revenue Secretary raise taxes and set policy?

And stating that “Tom Wolf’s record on jobs is a car wreck” has become yet another flat-tire for the Governor, as A. cabinet officials have no “record on jobs,” and B. Wolf actually created hundreds of jobs as a successful businessman. Does Corbett, a public official virtually his entire career, really want to compare notes on who created more jobs?

Lastly, the ad states, “Corbett created 150,000 new jobs,” — the height of hypocrisy. Corbett can’t have it both ways. First he correctly preached that government doesn’t create jobs; only the private sector does. But then he conveniently flip-flopped, touting the government’s job-creating and unemployment-lowering prowess.

Result: Corbett makes history, becoming the first incumbent governor to lose re-election, drowning by 18 to 20 points.

Winner: Tom Wolf

Not so fast Republicans.

Winner: Katie McGinty

Photo by Matt Slocum/AP

Loser: Rob McCord

State treasurer Rob McCord got out of the gate slowly, chasing Allyson Schwartz’s coattails. By the time he finally got in gear, Tom Wolf had appeared out of nowhere and stolen the show. But McCord did nothing, operating in a bubble and believing that because he had won two statewide races, he was well-known. Newsflash: he wasn’t. No disrespect to McCord, a very capable Treasurer, but no one knows who the Treasurer is or what he does, nor do they care.

But what got McCord in hot water with many in his party was airing what some considered a race-baiting ad linking Wolf with a former York mayor involved in the 1960s race riots. It was a dangerous play, and it backfired, because not only aren’t people focused on events 50 years ago, but it was nowhere explosive enough to move the polls. Now some regard McCord as a bigot, making his road to higher office that much harder. While his prospects for 2016 aren’t dead, he sure hasn’t helped himself with this campaign. Third-place finish.

Biggest Loser: Allyson Schwartz

Without a doubt, the Schwartz campaign has been an absolute disaster, effectively ending her political career. The prohibitive favorite for the last two years to win the primary, Schwartz has proven that the second time’s no charm, as this will be another statewide race that she was expected to win, but blew. In the 2000 U.S. Senate primary, despite being the only major candidate from the southeast (home to half the state’s voters), she came in a distant second to western Pennsylvania Congressman Ron Klink. (Ron who?)
Like McCord, Schwartz incomprehensibly sat on the sidelines while Wolf had the airwaves and media attention all to himself. When she finally acted, it was too little, way too late. Her commercials were generic and bland, barely effective for a frontrunner but the death knell for a candidate 25 points behind. And Schwartz’ attack ads against Wolf were cumbersome and confusing, leaving Wolf unblemished.
The clock has run out for Allyson. Not only will Schwartz’ age (she would be 68) work against her for a senate run (why elect someone who will only serve a term or two?), her lackadaisical campaign style, poor political judgment and blown opportunities will likely keep her off any future ballots. Distant second place finish.
Bottom line: He may have acted like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, but Tom Wolf is about to give Tom Corbett the bite of a lifetime.
Like McCord, Schwartz incomprehensibly sat on the sidelines while Wolf had the airwaves and media attention all to himself. When she finally acted, it was too little, way too late. Her commercials were generic and bland, barely effective for a frontrunner but the death knell for a candidate 25 points behind. And Schwartz’ attack ads against Wolf were cumbersome and confusing, leaving Wolf unblemished.

The clock has run out for Allyson. Not only will Schwartz’ age (she would be 68) work against her for a senate run (why elect someone who will only serve a term or two?), her lackadaisical campaign style, poor political judgment and blown opportunities will likely keep her off any future ballots. Distant second place finish.

Bottom line: He may have acted like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, but Tom Wolf is about to give Tom Corbett the bite of a lifetime.