The Katz Report

Thursday, April 12, 2007

With five weeks left in the Democratic primary, Tom Knox has made another smart and tactically bold move. By releasing an ad in which Knox connects his efforts to get guns off the street with those of Dwight Evans and links his leadership on cleaning up City Hall with the considerably arduous efforts of Michael Nutter, Knox has effectively created the bridge for Evans and Nutter supporters, whose candidates are trailing (badly) in the Keystone Poll, to eventually cross and support his surging candidacy. Putting aside the obvious fact that, prior to announcing his candidacy for mayor, Knox had no public record that I'm aware of on either of these issues, the ad is a brilliant setup to try to close the deal.

Public polling rarely reports on one of the key questions affecting electoral outcomes, a question that pollsters retained by campaigns ask as the end nears. It is a simple one: “Whom do you believe will win?” Voters don't like to throw their votes away. They may love their candidate, but if they think he's going down, they tend to look around. The new Knox ad suggests to Evans and Nutter supporters that they need not look far — that Knox has been in the trenches with both of them, fighting hard for the same things that they stand for.

Rather than go negative on his opponents, Knox has put a giant bear hug on them. A positive attack. Unheard of.

Knox's chief strategist and media advisor, Joe Trippi, the guy behind Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign, has again demonstrated that he is in a class by himself. An innovator of online political fund-raising, Trippi took on a campaign for which funds were no object. His performance shows what a canny investor Knox is. He bought the best money could buy, and the results have been truly startling. In a town famous for never buying on the first look, Knox is in a commanding spot. His debt to Trippi will be enormous. So I suspect will be Trippi's fees.

The interesting question now is whether Evans and Nutter stay locked in Knox’s embrace or pivot away and try to put Knox in a headlock. Whether and how they respond could create their only opportunity to change their standing in this race. Stay tuned.

Monday, April 9, 2007

With just over 30 days to go, the Democratic mayoral primary is at a place no one anticipated. Today the race is Tom Knox’s to lose. He has the money and has used it — lots of it — smartly. While my sense is that Knox’s support is not deep, the other four candidates have resource, identity and timing hurdles that will make catching and passing Knox difficult. Here is what I would suggest to each.

Bob Brady
The worst is behind you (unless a court decides to toss you from the ballot). You need to do three things: Use your TV to connect on reform, turn Knox’s outsider image upside down and mobilize your troops for a highly targeted turnout. Unless you provide some reason for the disaffected to consider you, a negative campaign on Knox may damage him but move voters to one of your other opponents. You’ve got to get a slice of this vote.

Michael Nutter
Your “run against Street” strategy isn’t paying dividends yet. Despite your record on ethics and battles with the mayor, Knox has wrestled far too many reformers from your base. You need to do a positive negative: Tom Knox says he’ll take down the sale signs, but with millions in personal loans to his campaign, he’ll be hanging up new ones if he gets to City Hall. Here’s my position: No fund-raising once elected until 18 months before the next election, and there won’t be any loan repayments for me. Also, plan to use the TV debates to identify Knox as your opponent. Because he is.

Dwight Evans
You need a sizzling TV message. I’d make it I was right about change in the police leadership, right about providing choices for educating our kids, right on guns and right on ethics reform. We need a leader who isn’t afraid to take positions that are right whether or not they are popular. Your campaign is in danger of a repeat of ’99. Unless something breaks for you, and quickly, you should soon be chatting with Nutter.

Chaka Fattah
You’ve managed to blow a comfortable lead and have botched the release of your tax returns and your campaign finance reports. Not looking in control. You’ve had a winning message from the outset, but your lack of fund-raising has left it largely unheard. You need to clear your schedule and go back to the phones. Unless you can generate a fresh $1 million for TV, you are about to be left in the dust. You don’t need to go negative. You just need to get your story and plans out there.

Tom Knox
You got here with your cash, but your greatest asset may soon become your biggest liability. If you want to put this race away, pledge to convert your personal campaign loans into contributions, not to raise any money to repay yourself, and to be your own $1-a-year man once elected. And get ready to be whacked.

Four joint TV appearances masquerading as debates are on the schedule. These are difficult places to shine and to make others look bad. The four challengers to Tom Knox had best find a way to do both. Otherwise, Philadelphia will likely be led by a guy nobody knows.

Read week one's entries.