The Katz Report

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Usually, primaries are the warm-up. But for Philadelphia in 2007, the Democratic primary is widely assumed to be the day we crown a new mayor. What will it take to win?

First, a stroll down memory lane. In the very tough 1983 Wilson Goode/Frank Rizzo primary, when Democratic voter rolls swelled to nearly 900,000, almost 70 percent of the registered Ds showed up to vote. Sixteen years later in the five-way 1999 Democratic primary, when Democrats in town numbered 735,000, only 301,000 bothered to vote — a 41 percent turnout. As of 2006, Democratic registration is up slightly, to 761,000, but given the lack of a galvanizing issue (does no one think the next mayor will stop murderers?) and the coming deluge of paid advertising by five candidates the public barely knows, it will surprise me if more than 275,000 voters show up. It's all about the math!

Thirty percent — 82,500 votes — wins going away, but I'm betting no one gets there. Here's my logic: This field is well enough financed so that nobody gets below 10 — in fact, I think the lowest vote total will be 15 percent. Three candidates will get between 15 percent and 21 percent. Their votes will represent 52 percent, leaving 48 percent for the two "front runners," one of whom gets 25 percent, the other 23 percent. If I'm right, fewer than 70,000 people will define who leads us for the next eight years (no incumbent seeking re-election has ever lost here). Does the word pathetic jump to mind? By the way, this prediction suggests a mere 5,500-vote margin for the winner. That's less than I lost to John Street by in the 1999 general, when 435,000 votes were cast.

Given the breadth and scope of complex and divisive issues confronting Philadelphia's future, the potential consequences of this "mandate" are mind-boggling. The skills that the eventual winner will need to apply to provide our city with real leadership will, hopefully, emerge quickly on the job. They certainly haven't yet been evident on the campaign trail.

Here's hoping I'm wrong across the board. It would be great if those 325,000 voters who disappeared after the 1983 Democratic primary decided to get into this election. Even a modest return of them could alter the outcome significantly and give the next mayor a solid political foundation for action.

Monday, April 2, 2007

I’ve never been good on the sidelines or on the bench, and it has been painful at times lately. Tigre Hill’s movie, The Shame of a City, is omnipresent — I get to watch or hear constantly about my getting ripped off in 2003 and then merely observe a race in which I would have hoped to have been standing for re-election. Honestly, I can’t say that I’m loving it.

Of course, after a lifetime involved in city politics, there is little left to surprise me — but there are some incredible ironies. The effort to deny Bob Brady a spot on the ballot and the diversion of a court battle reminds me of Frank Rizzo’s effort to knock Ron Castille off the ballot in 1991. It was a bit of a circus that helped shape public perceptions of Ron’s campaign, just as this court battle is focusing attention on Bob’s long-standing status as a patronage employee of the city. This isn’t how you want to start a sprint to primary day.

To me, the most troubling aspect so far is how Tom Knox has been promising to take down the “for sale” sign at City Hall while at the same time loaning money to his campaign. What happens if he wins? Will he have to leave that sign up to enable these loans to be paid back? And why haven’t his opponents challenged him on this point?

It’s still too early, though, to make any kind of prediction. Voters haven’t focused and don’t know these candidates very well. Nothing has crystallized, and no one has really laid a glove on anybody else yet. The current five-way race has many similarities to the five-way race in 1999. Street won that primary with 34 percent, and I think Dwight Evans finished last with 6 percent. I don’t see anyone this time getting above 30 or below 10 — this is an election that will likely be decided by a few thousand votes, or fewer. It could end up in court, just where it began.