The Katz Report

Friday, April 27, 2007

Over the weekend and the last several days, the political landscape shifted. Not seismically, but certainly perceptibly.

Kudos to the Philadelphia Inquirer. This past Sunday the paper hit the trifecta: Tom Fitzgerald’s piece about the unbelievably late-blooming “stop Knox” effort, contrasted with a photo of Knox standing beneath the statue of William Penn at City Hall, was both superb journalism and poignant photojournalism. Tom Ferrick’s column that focused on a “customer-centric” city government caught the essence of what is abundantly wrong with the current administration and the critical challenge facing the next one. And Chris Satullo’s op-ed about the unintended consequences of an overzealous and not entirely well-thought-through package of municipal ethics and campaign finance reforms was brilliant. A self-anointed “goo-goo” (“good government type”), Chris fell on his sword.

My last mayoral blog bemoaned the fact that the press and media had grown bored with this campaign. But that changed in an instant, and the igniting factor was the growing realization that Knox was starting to put this thing away — and that Tommy, we hardly know you. Strategists for all of the other candidates have increasing fears that the spread between Knox and their guy has grown too wide. With the exception of Fattah, all have now trained their guns on Knox. It would appear that there could be plenty to work with to attack the fundamental self-portrait of Knox as the “outsider” who will clean up City Hall. Knox’s decision to hire and retain a convicted felon and his defense of it won’t play well out there. His role as a “savior” of the City after the near financial collapse in 1991 is also deservedly under assault. And as Chris Satullo intimated, his political and people skills are being called into question by those who know and have worked with him.

But can Tom Knox be stopped?

My gut tells me that all of this may have come about 10 days too late. True, voters tend to focus toward the end of campaigns, and we are nearing the final two weeks. But with everyone doing some level of paid advertising, with robo-calls cued up, with door-to-door canvassing about to hit its peak, the din will get louder and less discernible. In other words, it’s “clutter time,” a moment when many tune out the noise, particularly if they’ve made up their minds — and polls suggest that most voters have. Each candidate is counting on their paid and volunteer armies to identify and turn out their votes. But each has, of necessity, discounted the prospect that Knox still has a few shekels in the kitty to fund his own ground assault on the weekend before and through election eve. No, he won’t have many Democratic committee people on his team, but rest assured that this guy didn’t just spend $5 million to $6 million on TV in the hopes that all of those folks telling pollsters they’re for Knox will somehow find their way into a voting booth. Count on it. Knox will be well armed on Election Day.

Turnout machinery could matter though if the previously reported 7-to-10 point gap narrows to three to four points. The new Susquehanna Poll sponsored by Pennsylvanians for Effective Government dropped a bombshell last night with the news that Mike Nutter had captured second place and was in a statistical dead heat with Knox. Though this polling source doesn’t enjoy the same credibility for tracking city elections as do some others, it may be the first sign that the Tom Knox story is being successfully rewritten. The next Keystone Poll, due out on May 4th, will tell whether that assessment is an accurate one. If Knox is sinking or has hit his high-water mark, or if in fact Nutter has closed the gap, then Election Day troops, notably for Brady and Fattah — who are likely to be the best organized — could make the difference and turn this election on its head. One question mark for me is that if Knox, the only candidate who can afford daily tracking polls, was seeing these same numbers, wouldn’t his advertising campaign be shifting to reflect that concern? I haven’t seen evidence that Knox’s ad mix or message reflects a tightening, but that too could change.

The problem, though, remains Knox’s second-greatest asset in this race: the fact that there are four guys competing for the other 73 to 76 percent of the vote. On the other hand, voters like to vote for someone they think can win, and if that perception shifts, so could a lot of seemingly decided votes. Mike Nutter would appear to be in the best spot to pull this out if Tom Knox falters.

Oh how quickly things do change in politics!

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

In the 1992 film The Distinguished Gentlemen, Eddie Murphy, playing a Florida con man, capitalizes on the opportunity to run for Congress to replace a deceased incumbent with whom he shares a name. His message is simple: “Vote for Me, William Jefferson Johnson, The Name You Know.”

Through the ’70s and ’80s, Pennsylvanians had the habit of electing men with names we knew, like Robert Casey (including one, state treasurer Robert E. Casey, who was not, it turned out, the popular Casey from Scranton — who was later required to change his name to the “real Bob Casey”). But nowhere and at no time has the mantle of a well-known father more dominated electoral politics than in this year’s race for at-large seats on City Council.

There are four men running whose fathers served as mayor of Philadelphia: incumbents Frank Rizzo and Wilson Goode, and newcomers Bill Green and Sharif Street. Mark down Rizzo and Goode, whose famous fathers faced off in 1983 and 1987, as locks for re-election. Add Blondell Reynolds Brown, a protégé of Chaka Fattah’s and a hard-working member of Council.

Sharif and Bill are serious contenders with complicated hurdles. Both are lawyers with considerable pedigree. Sharif has been a fixture in his father’s campaigns, largely acquitting himself well (as I frequently saw firsthand). Young Bill is a total newcomer seeking to tap into a network of legal colleagues and Friends of Bill (Sr.) to fund a newspaper print campaign with a photo of himself and his father to remind voters of who he is. His dad left Philadelphia in 1983 after being forced to the sidelines by his then-managing director, Wilson Goode, so rekindling that memory may prove challenging.

Sharif’s greatest asset, his last name, is also his greatest liability, as Dad’s numbers are not exactly chart-busters. Oh, and did I mention his uncle Milton (chairman and CEO of Notlim Corporation, of airport baggage-handling-contract fame)? Green’s biggest problem is also his great asset, his name. He is facing William Greenlee and Derek Green. Greenlee is the guy handpicked to replace David Cohen, and Derek Green comes out of Councilwoman Marian Tasco’s office. Green, the name you know in three ballot positions.

Wait, this gets better. Incumbent Juan Ramos, who was selected in 2003 to punish independent voice Angel Oritz, is being challenged within the Latino community by Ben Ramos, a former state rep and one of the city’s brightest politicians. The at-large field includes other well-known and well-liked personalities such as Reverend Lorina Marshall-Blake and former PHA police officer and union leader Rodney Little. Reformer Marc Stier has been running cable TV and is campaigning tirelessly. Andy Toy and David Oh provide the city’s growing Asian community with the possibility of representation. And did I mention Republican incumbent Jack Kelly, another name you know — but not the one who rowed in the ’60 Olympics or whose magnificent sister married a prince. And then there’s hard-driving, hot-blooded Jim Kenney, who’s somewhat bloodied from the attempt to rewrite campaign finance laws (to help Bob Brady) and from the changed status of his mentor, The Senator.

The subtext of this Council at-large election has much less to do with names you know than it does with names you don’t. Those would be Anna Verna’s and Jannie Blackwell’s — both of whom covet the position of City Council president. Winning one of the at-large seats will have much to do with getting your name, known or not, onto the oh so many sample ballots that will be carried by committee people and poll workers on election day, which will in turn be affected by whether your vote for president can be counted on by Friends of Bob (Verna’s ally) or Friends of Chaka (Jannie’s ally).

My bet is that we will see more than a few new names on City Council come next year. But they may not be the names you know. Can anyone find Eddie Murphy? I mean, William Jefferson Johnson.

Read last week’s entries.
Read week two’s entries.
Read week one's entries.