The Katz Report

Thursday, May 3, 2007

When it started, most people thought this 2007 mayoral election would come down to a two-man race between powerful leaders of experienced and effective street organizations: party chair and congressman Bob Brady and congressman Chaka Fattah. Though Fattah could still pull off a come-from-behind win, his mistake-prone campaign is showing few signs of life. Instead, the race has come down to a contest between the two guys who have made reform and cleaning up City Hall their hallmark. Based on all of the new polling data, it might be a late night as votes are counted for Tom Knox and Michael Nutter. Normally, the outside is a cold place. This year, it appears to be the hottest place in politics.

Democratic voters have clearly embraced the message of change. That’s no surprise as eight years of an aloof, at times arrogant and often corrupt city government led by Mayor John Street come mercifully to an end. The pay-to-play culture of a “corrupt and contented” city is being resoundingly rejected by a majority of Democrats. With all of his personal resources, Tom Knox parlayed that message into his front-runner status, which for a time looked nearly impregnable. But the Knox version of Knox and the real version of Knox became misaligned as his business past started to get some serious scrutiny last weekend. Voters who were attracted by the message started to fall out of love with the messenger. Mike Nutter was the only one positioned to become the new messenger. Momentum has built for him: The tightening polls. A campaign that has made no mistakes (save for the “stop and frisk” policy that has kept his support among African-Americans in the toilet). Disciplined fund-raising and equally disciplined spending. And a quiet demeanor that has provided a consistency and determination to his vision of hope and change. And, of course, there were those two superb editorial endorsements from Philadelphia magazine and the Philadelphia Inquirer. The Daily News and the Northeast Times are next up for Nutter.

Lesser noticed, but in my view most compelling, are the first six minutes of Nutter’s meeting with the Inquirer editorial board. I’ve personally done editorial interviews at the Inky four times and have been there on numerous other occasions, and I think Nutter’s presentation is one of the most coherent, thoughtful and enlightened ones I’ve ever heard. It is easy to understand why he was their choice and why he has become the choice of so many others.

But the last inning hasn’t been played.

While the airwaves carry the heaviest media buy in city political history — with all five candidates spending as much as they can (this week probably a total of $1.5 million alone) — Knox hammers away with his fresh face, independence and a pledge to clean up the political swamp. Meanwhile, a Knox win will establish the new political order that would include Jannie Blackwell as Council president and John Dougherty as Democratic Party boss. This is the price that Knox seems prepared to pay in order to get an Election Day army. That and a reported $225 per worker — a number sure to get a lot of attention in this normally $100 a day market. If the race is as tight as the new polls suggest, the street operation that Local 98 and its allies and Blackwell’s West Philadelphia base provide could be determinative.

In the 1950s Broadway production Fiorello, the Tammany Hall patronage workers sing a lament: “We got a winner, but what good is that to us? Not if he doesn’t feel grateful for our support.” Philadelphia’s Democrats are about to nominate a candidate who won’t likely feel grateful for the support of the established powers.

There is change in the air. Whether it will produce what the voters seem to want, or more of the same with just a new set of faces, is the only question left to answer.

Read last week’s entries.
Read week three's entries.
Read week two’s entries.
Read week one's entries.